Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of August 13
August 14
NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index – July
107.5
107.2
107
Export Prices – July
0.1%
0.3
0.2
Import Prices
0.1
-0.4
0.0
August 15
Retail Sales – July
0.3%
0.5
0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.5
0.4
0.4
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas
0.5
0.3
0.4
New York Fed Manufacturing Index
20.6
22.6
20.0
Productivity – Q2 (p)
2.5%
0.4
2.5
Unit Labor Costs
-0.4
-0.4
-.02
Industrial Production – July
0.3%
0.6
0.3
Manufacturing
0.4
0.8
0.3
Capacity Utilization
78.2
78.0
78.2
Business Inventories – June
0.2%
0.4
0.1
NAHB Index
69
68
69
August 16
Initial Unemployment Claims
216
213
215
Housing Starts – July
1.256M
1.173
1.271
Building Permits
1.305
1.273
1.304
Philadelphia Fed Survey
22.8
25.7
22.3
August 17
Leading Economic Indicators
0.5%
0.5
0.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)
98.3
97.9
97.9
Week of August 20
August 22
Existing Home Sales – July
5.509M
5.380
August 23
Initial Unemployment Claims
FHFA Home Price Index – June
0.6%
0.2
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
55.3
55.3
PMI Services Flash
57.0
56.0
New Home Sales – July
649K
631
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
25
23
August 24
Durable Goods Sales – July
1.5%
0.8
