Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of August 27
August 27
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – July
0.35
0.43
0.38
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
28.0
32.3
28.0
August 28
International Trade in Goods – July
-$69.6B
-68.3
-69.1
Wholesale Inventories – July (a)
0.1%
0.1
0.1
S&P Case/Shiller Index – June
Twenty City M/M
0.2%
0.2
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.7
0.7
Twenty City Y/Y
6.5
6.5
Consumer Confidence – August
127.4
127.4
126.5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
19
20
19
August 29
GDP – Q2 (p)
4.0%
4.1
4.0
Pending Home Sales Index – July
106.9
106.9
106.9
August 30
Initial Unemployment Claims
213K
210
214
Personal Income – July
0.3%
0.4
0.4
Personal Spending
0.4
0.4
0.4
August 31
Chicago PMI
64.0
65.5
63.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – August (r)
95.3
95.3
95.3
Week of September 3
September 4
ISM (Mfg) – August
57.9
58.1
Construction Spending – July
0.4%
-1.1
September 5
Auto Sales* – August
17.0
16.77
International Trade – July
-$47.6B
-46.3
September 6
ADP Employment Report – August
190
219
Productivity – Q2 (r)
2.8%
2.9
Unit Labor Costs
-0.8
-0.9
ISM Services – August
56.7
55.7
Factory Orders – June
-0.6%
0.7
Durable Goods Orders
-1.7
-1.7
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.5
0.5
September 7
Nonfarm Payrolls – August
200K
157
Private
190
170
Manufacturing
25
37
Unemployment
3.8%
3.9
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
