EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW.
The Czech Republic reports June industrial and construction output and retail sales Monday. June trade will be reported Tuesday. It then reports July CPI Thursday, which is expected to rise 2.3% y/y vs. 2.6% in June. If so, it would move inflation back towards the 2% target. The next policy meeting is September 26. After hiking two straight meetings, it may pause then.
The Philippines reports July CPI Tuesday, which is expected to rise 5.5% y/y vs. 5.2% in June. If so, it would be the highest since April 2009 and further above the 2-4% target range. June trade will be reported Wednesday. The central bank meets Thursday and the market is nearly evenly split between a 25 or 50 bp hike. We lean towards 25 bp. Q2 GDP will be reported Thursday and is expected to grow 6.7% y/y vs. 6.8% in Q1.
Russia reports July CPI Tuesday, which is expected to rise 2.6% y/y vs. 2.3% in June. If so, it would be the highest since October 2017 but still below the 4% target. However, the ruble remains vulnerable and so we think the easing cycle is over for now. The next policy meeting is September 14, no change is expected then. June trade will be reported Friday.
Hungary reports June IP Tuesday. It then reports July CPI Wednesday, which is expected to rise 3.3% y/y vs. 3.1% in June. If so, it would be the highest since January 2013 and closer to the top of the 2-4% target range. Central bank minutes will also be released that same day. The next policy meeting is August 21. June trade will be reported Thursday.
Taiwan reports July CPI Tuesday, which is expected to rise 1.5% y/y vs. 1.3% in June. July trade will also be reported that day, with exports expected to rise 5.6% y/y and imports by 8.3% y/y. The central bank does not have an explicit inflation target. However, low price pressures should allow it to remain on hold at its next quarterly policy meeting in September.
