The market’s obsession with trade wars may finally be exhausted and priced in. Move on to the next market mover: massive Chinese tax cuts, which should aid the WisdomTree ICBCCS S&P China 500 Fund (WCHN) and the WisdomTree China ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (CXSE), our passive ETFs for the country.
Sure, China exported $457 billion worth of goods and services to the U.S. in the year through June,1 and some fraction of those exports is at risk from a deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations. But engage a drastic scenario: Lop off $200 billion or $300 billion from that figure. Even if that happened, most of that sum wouldn’t even disappear; it would be sold elsewhere, maybe inside China, at concessionary prices. But even suspending logic and having it all vanish, is it really doomsday for China’s $14.1 trillion economy ($25.2 trillion at purchasing power parity)?2 We don’t want to minimize the importance of trade conflicts, but the airtime given this topic is hysteric.
When President Obama was in office, many conservatives and free-market acolytes convinced themselves he would destroy the economy, so they ignored massive fiscal and monetary stimulus—the data—and missed the equity bull market. Emotions ruled; logic lost.
Now it’s happening with President Trump. Among some investors, emotions are defeating data. The recent BofA/Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey pointed to a trade war as the market’s biggest risk. That may be because some investors so badly wish Trump to fail that, like conservatives during the Obama years, positive news is simply ignored. Forget Japan’s major trade deal with the EU, ink still wet. Forget Trump’s meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, where they agreed to work toward zero tariffs. The end is near!
Astute investors need a sober, facts-based thesis.
A Thesis without Emotion
