The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the major currencies, as the light participation and lack of fresh news see a consolidative tone emerge after the pullback at the end of last week. Although markets in Turkey are closed for a nearly week-long holiday, it has not prevented the lira from weakening. After closing a little below TRY6.02 before the weekend, the greenback has moved to TRY6.15 in the European morning.
Turkey reported signed an fx swap agreement with Qatar but whatever support for sentiment that this may have generated was offset by news that the US rejected the offer of Turkey to released the pastor in exchange for dropping the investigation into Halkbank for violating sanctions against Iran. The TRY6.4665 is the 50% retracement of last week’s dollar pullback, and the 61.8% retracement is nearer TRY6.65.
The euro’s three-day advance is at risk. It was unable to extend last week’s recovery and met a wall of sellers ahead of $1.1450. There are options for 674 mln euros struck in the $.1445-$1.1450 area that expire today and correspond to the cap seen in Asia. Europe has followed suit and pushed the euro to session lows near $1.1400. Support is seen ahead of $1.1380.
The dollar is about a quarter of a yen range, less than a 15 tick range on either side of JPY110.55. It consolidates in the lower half of the pre-weekend range. Resistance is seen in the JPY110.70-JPY110.80 area. Large options expiring today ($1.6 bln at JPY110 and $1 bln at JPY111) makes the broader range. Japanese shares slipped a third of a 1%, while most of the region, including China, advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index nearly 0.4%.
The Shanghai Composite rose 1.1% to snap a five-day 4.5% slide. The index has slipped below the end of 2016 levels before state-backed funds reportedly entered the market. Turnover in China’s mainland equity markets fell to the lowest level in six months today. Given that the market is dominated by retail investors, the low volume is thought to reflect the negative psychology. The yuan rose in China for the third consecutive session. The PBOC again strengthened it at the fix and yuan rose 0.5% today. The offshore yuan were it easier to speculate is off 0.15%. Recall that last Thursday there had been talk of official action in the offshore market and the offshore yuan (CNH) jumped more than 1.2%, the most in more than 18 months, and there was a nearly 0.4% rise on follow-through buying ahead of the weekend.
