There’s been plenty of chatter lately about the current bull market becoming the “longest on record”. Below is an updated look at the length of the current bull market compared to past bull markets for the S&P 500.

First things first, though. Until the S&P 500 closes at a new high, January 26th, 2018 represents the end point of the current bull market because that’s the date of the S&P’s highest closing point of the bull market. Thus, the length of the current bull market has been stopped at 3,245 days since January 26th (3/9/09-1/26/18). A bull market is most commonly defined as a 20%+ rally that was preceded by a 20%+ decline. If the S&P never closes above its January 26th closing level, and instead it goes on to fall 20% from that level, a new bear market will have begun with a start date of January 26th, 2018. Since we don’t know whether the S&P will go into a new bear market before it closes above its 1/26 high, or vice versa, we can’t extend the length of the current bull market past the 1/26 high point.

Based on the most commonly used definition of bull and bear markets (20% rallies and declines using closing prices), below is a chart showing the length (in calendar days) of bull and bear markets for the S&P 500 since 1927. We’ve shaded bull markets in green and made them positive, while we’ve shaded bear markets in red and made them negative.

The current bull market that has lasted 3,245 days is the second longest on record behind the 4,494-day bull market that ran from late 1987 through early 2000. Yes, the S&P 500 went from late 1987 to early 2000 without experiencing a single decline of 20% or more on a closing basis.

If the S&P 500 went on to make a new closing high today, the current bull market would be at 3,447 days, which would still be more than 1,000 days less than the longest bull market on record. For the current bull to become the longest on record, the S&P 500 would need to move above its 1/26 closing high and then not experience a 20% decline from an all-time high through June 29th, 2021.