With stocks at record high price and valuations, and US macro data rolling over hard, it seems – based on speculators’ positioning – that only a sucker would worry about downside risks right now.
Markets shrugged off a weaker than expected employment report (and constantly weaker than expected macro data) this week..
With VIX Futures and options speculative positioning is now at its most net short since Dec 2017.
As it seems investors have throw in the towel on worry.
Speculators have added to their aggregate Treasury short positions for 4 of the last 5 weeks, with this week showing the biggest addition to shorts since Nov. 2017.
And hedge funds have never been so short gold… having added to shorts for seven weeks running.
But no matter how much speculators pile into USD longs, the greenback refuses to rise any further.
What could go wrong?
