There were several adjustments in speculative positioning in the futures market that we want to bring to your attention.
In the currency futures, speculators are now net short euros for the first time since May 2017. At a little less than 1.8k contracts, the net short position is not particularly large. The record net long position was recorded in mid-April near 151k contracts.
The net position is a function of the gross longs and gross shorts. The gross speculative shorts have surged from 86.4 at the end of April to 190.2k as of August 14. It increased almost 23k contracts last week alone. It is the largest gross short position since February 217. The record was set in 2005 near 270k contracts.
The gross long position peaked at a record 262k contracts in late January. It fell to 174.5k by the end of July, but the bulls have not capitulated. They had added to the gross long position for the past two CFTC reporting weeks to stand at 188.4k contracts. Except for the recent past, it is still an extremely large position.
Speculative positioning in sterling also caught our eye. The net short position is now the largest of the year at 60.7k contracts. It is the fourth weekly increase and is the largest net short position since May 2017. The bears have pounded sterling and added to the gross short position for the past three weeks, lifting it by more than 40k contract to 120.8k.In late May it stood at about 50.6k contracts.
The bulls had the largest gross long position in a decade in mid-April of over 110k contracts. The position has been slashed as sterling fell from near $1.44 to almost $1.2660 on August 15. However, the bulls have begun trying to pick a bottom. They have added to the gross long position for the past three reporting period and lifted the position from 32.2k contracts to a little more than 60k.
The bears have the upper hand in the gold futures market, and speculators have their first net short position since late 2001 (-3.7k contracts). The shift is driven by an almost three-fold increase of the gross short position since the middle of June. It has risen from 72.5k contracts to 215.5k. Speculators added to the gross short position without fail for the past nine reporting weeks. The gross long position rose last week by 3.5k contracts (to 211.8k contracts) and has trended higher since reaching 185.3k in early June.
