Commodities tried to turn the corner on reports of low-level talks, about a framework to end the trade war, and make everyone realize that perhaps some of the fears of backlash, from a trade war, were overblown. China is feeling the pain of the trade war while the U.S. looks to be gaining. If recent trade trends continue, it is possible that the U.S. may find it harder and harder to lift tariffs, which seem on par to be giving the country a decisive advantage of opts trade partners. This comes against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. Turkey tension and a failing Venezuela, whose President’s economic plan may make things worse and perhaps collapse the Venezuelan oil.
Reuters is reporting that – China and the United States will hold lower-level trade talks this month, the two governments said on Thursday, offering hope that they might resolve an escalating tariff war that threatens to engulf all trade between the world’s two largest economies. The news did cause a pullback in the dollar and copper, the most oversold it has been in years attempted a bottom out of bear market territory. Oil also tried to rally but seasonal concerns and a bearish EIA report held back the market.
Bloomberg is reporting that many Venezuelan shops closed as a precaution, as confusion reigned Saturday following measures announced by President Nicolas Maduro, aimed at fighting a historic economic crisis in the oil-exporting nation. The government will enact a massive currency devaluation, and an increase in taxes, and will raise gasoline prices. A new version of the bolivar will trade roughly in line with where the black market was, and the government will raise the minimum wage more than 3,000 percent — a level that still only equates to $30 a month. The new currency is based on the price oil, which historically is a boom and bust commodity anyway. This will not end well. Venezuela will collapse and it is going to be interesting to see how the world picks up the pieces. For oil traders, it is only a matter of time until Venezuela’s oil production falls to zero.
