This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast August 2018
For the month of August, we forecast that the best trades will be short EUR/USD and short GBP/USD. For the month of July, we forecast that the best trades would be long USD/JPY and long USD/SEK. The final performance was as follows:
Currency Pair
Forecast Direction
Interest Rate Differential
Performance to Date
USD/SEK
Long ↑
2.50% (2.00% – -0.50%)
-1.71%
USD/JPY
Long ↑
2.10% (2.00% – -0.10%)
+1.01%
Weekly Forecast 5th August 2018
Last week, we make no forecasts, as there were no strong counter-trend movements.
This week, we again make no forecast, as there were again no strong counter-trend movements.
This week has been dominated by relative strength in the Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar and relative weakness in the Euro.
Previous Monthly Forecasts
You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
