It was touch and go for the better part of the week, but against just the right backdrop of news and with just the right amount of FOMO (fear of missing out), the bulls were willing to plow into stocks late in the last trading day of the week. The S&P 500 even managed to reach a new record; the Nasdaq had already done so a few weeks back.
Just for the record though, it’s still a flawed rally effort. The volume behind the advance is not only below-average, it’s sinking. Most investors are wary of buying in now. They’re just not willing to take profits yet either.
We’ll examine the matter in some detail below, after a run-down of this week’s and next week’s economic news.
Economic Data
Last week was modest in terms of economic announcements, but the bit we got wasn’t exactly thrilling.
Most disappointing was July’s new and existing home sales figures. They weren’t bad, but they were far from the shot in the arm the bulls would have liked to have seen. Existing home sales fell from June’s pace of 5.38 million to 5.34 million, and sales of new homes fell to an annualized rate of only 627,000 units. The tepid numbers extend a slow downtrend in activity that’s becoming a little uncomfortable.
New and Existing Home Sales Charts
Source: Thomson Reuters
Home prices inched a little higher, crude inventory levels fell, and durable goods orders didn’t improve quite as much as anticipated.
The big news, of course, wasn’t the release of economic data per se, but the release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. In short, the Fed anticipates ongoing economic strength, forcing it to remain on pace with its plans to raise interest rates as this year turns into next year. The minutes also went as far to say, though, that the body does indeed believe that a prolonged tariff war could take a toll on economic growth.
