Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 1
October 1
ISM (Mfg) – Sept
59.8
61.3
59.9
Construction Spending – August
0.5%
0.1
0.5
October 2
Auto Sales* – September
16.90M
16.72
16.78
Car Sales
5.2
5.14
Truck Sales
11.7
11.58
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
October 3
ADP Employment Report – September
195K
163
177
ISM Services – September
58.0
58.5
58.0
October 4
Initial Unemployment Claims
210K
214
210
Factory Orders – August
2.4%
-0.8
2.0
Durable Goods Orders
4.5
-1.7
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.3
0.2
October 5
Nonfarm Payrolls – September
195K
201
180
Private
190
204
171
Manufacturing
10
-3
10
Unemployment
3.9%
3.9
3.8
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.4
0.3
International Trade – August
-$54.0B
-50.1
-53.6
Consumer Credit – August
$15.5B
16.6
15.0
Week of October 8
October 9
October 10
Producer Price Index – September
0.2%
-0.1
0.2
PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)
0.2
0.1
Wholesale Inventories – August
0.8
0.8
0.6
October 11
Initial Unemployment Claims
Consumer Price Index – September
0.20%
0.2
0.2
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
0.2
Treasury Budget – September
$93.5B
-214.1
October 12
Export Prices – September
-0.1%
-0.1
0.2
Import Prices
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – October (p)
99.0
100.1
99.0
