Given that today’s Fed rate hike is firmly priced in, we expect FX markets to focus on the statement and the press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Even if the policy stance is no longer be called “accommodative”, we would not expect this change to trigger any strong USD buying. The market remains unconvinced that the FOMC will move the fed funds target rate into a restrictive territory, and we agree with this assessment. With the Fed likely to reach the end of its tightening cycle next year, and other currency regions starting to catch up, we think that most of the USD’s strength is behind us – although risk sentiment will likely remain an important factor over the coming months.
This is how MyFXspot.com trades now:
EUR/USD
Trading strategy: Buy
Open: 1.1645
Target: –
Stop-loss: 1.1570 (raised from 1.1450)
Recommended size: 2.67 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: EUR/USD has now failed to register a daily close above the key 1.1780 Fibonacci level, 38.2% retrace of the 1.2556 to 1.1301 2018 fall, for four trading sessions in a row. This is the sign of a market that is struggling to break higher and instead is likely to drop towards the 30-day moving average now at 1.1632. We are looking to get long on dips.
GBP/USD
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 1.3130
Target: 1.3350
Stop-loss: 1.3020
Recommended size: 1.36 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: Price retraces beyond 61.8% of the September 21 1.3260 to 1.3041 drop, 1.3186, and is now consolidating gains above the 100-day moving average. We can see slow stochs bull cross, but 14-day momentum is slowing slightly.
USD/JPY
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: –
Target: –
Stop-loss: –
Recommended size: –
Short analysis: Long tail on Monday’s candlestick line increases the scope for further gains, as it signals a rejection of the downside. Scope grows for an eventual test of the 2018 113.40 peak.
