A better and more constructive day all around for Asian equities as most markets reopened (S. Korea still off) for business. With both the Shanghai and Hang Seng opening firmer, a steady trend developed to return 1% for both indices. Remarks overnight from US President Donald Trump failed to assist US trading or external commitment, but core Asian equities tended to ignore this in favor of a recovery bounce. The Nikkei made headway after a morning rout, rallying over +0.4% by the close whilst the Yen played in the low 113’s. Shanghai and HSI were strong all day. The SENSEX saw the opposite price action to the Nikkei. Having open at the day’s highs, the balance of the time was spent hitting bids. It did manage a small bounce by the close but still lost -0.35% on the day. The INR is struggling to resist the 73 figure, but this does not look like it can survive for much longer. Expecting the Rupee to continue its weak trend unless some positive constructive action is taken to alleviate the issues. Obviously, the big FED news is too late for the cash markets, but futures are responding well with the Nikkei up around 1% so far.
European markets almost seemed as though they did not believe the FED was going to raise rates this evening, especially with Bond yields falling. Peripherals markets too were lower with Italy, Greece and Portugal all trading higher (price – yield declining). The Euro and GBP both seemed to neglect that FED’s move, having seen the 25bp hike to 2.25%. Understandably, stocks were quiet and small positive, but to see currencies also strengthening is interesting. The CAC was the best of the bunch today and that was probably down to a few select benchmarks that helped via regulatory announcements (Airbus), but most were happy to play the wait and see the game. Interesting that its the CAC that returns the best on a day the Confidence Survey reflects an unsettled outlook. The Italian budget tomorrow will be very closely watched. The fear that the sums may be greater than expected will set the trend for BTP’s in Thursday’s trading. BREXIT, not such a hot topic today, may warrant attention tomorrow as new headlines late this evening suggest the odds of a ‘No Deal BREXIT’ are edging more towards this outcome. This comes after late news this evening that the UK’s Autumn Budget (Oct 29th) will be presented three weeks early and only a week after a possibly controversial BREXIT meeting with the EU on Oct 18th. We could possibly have a flash view of European inflation numbers tomorrow (which are not due until Friday) because German will release its inflation report and the Commission’s outlook tomorrow morning.