The October natural gas contract rallied around a percent on the day as support at the $2.75 level was able to hold firm and physical prices in the South were strong. 

The role of strong physical prices can be seen along the strip, with the October contract logging the largest daily increase. 

This came with relatively few weekend GWDD adjustments, as outlined in our Morning Update. 

Our Pre-Close Update from back on Friday highlighted this well, as we looked for $2.75 support to hold early this week and saw a bit of upside early this week. However, any upside seemed limited thanks to risks posed by Hurricane Florence approaching the Southeast. 

The latest forecasts show Hurricane Florence likely to make landfall as a major hurricane in the Carolinas sometime late on Thursday, as we had warned clients about late last week. 

As seen on Tropical Tidbits, the recent model guidance appears to favor the northern edge of that track, with a North Carolina landfall looking increasingly likely. 

Those that are in the potential path of this storm need to take it extremely seriously, as a Category 4 hurricane landfall appears quite likely. Evacuations are underway, and communities closest to landfall can expect very very significant impacts. Recent model intensify forecasts from Tropical Tidbits show a strong consensus that the storm will not weaken significantly until it moves over land. 

Meanwhile, that’s not all we have to watch. Our Note of the Day for subscribers today outlined potential impacts from other tropical systems forming in the Atlantic over the coming week or two. Currently, there are three hurricanes across the Atlantic basin and two more areas of interest that could develop in the next 5 days as well. 

For now, though, all attention is on Florence, as certainly it will bring impacts to the natural gas market as we have covered closely for clients today. First and foremost, though, the human aspect of the storm is one that ought to be respected and taken very seriously due to its expected intensity. In the coming days we will be sure to have more on this major hurricane, and of course will continue tracking impacts on the natural gas market and shifting weather forecasts and supply/demand balances, as we saw a change in weather-adjusted demand be responsible for much of the natural gas move today.