The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Nasdaq / Econoday) were 205 K to 217 K (consensus 213,000), and the Department of Labor reported 203,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 212,250 (reported last week as 212,250) to 209,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

This marks 178 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 16.3 % lower (better than the 10.4 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week a year ago.

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending September 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 213,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 212,250. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending August 25, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 25 was 1,707,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 1,708,000 to 1,710,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,718,500, a decrease of 13,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 1,715,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,731,250 to 1,731,750.