USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 24-28 – Crude Climb For CAD Awaiting The Fed And GDP -

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 24-28 – Crude Climb For CAD Awaiting The Fed And GDP

Sep 22, 2018Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

Dollar/CAD moved up and down as the US announced tariffs on China and Canada had a turbulent Friday. What’s next? Monthly GDP stands out in the last week of September. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

NAFTA talks are moving slowly and have moved to the back burner for now. Another trade front has warmed up: the US announced new tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion. The duties come into effect on September 24th. Markets took it with relative stride. Rising oil prices supported the greenback. Canadian inflation data beat expectations

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Wholesale Sales: Monday, 12:30. Sales at the wholesale level give an indication of sales at the retail level. Sales dropped by 0.8% in June and we will now get the figures for July, which will likely see a bounce in this Canadian sector.

Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada releases its monthly GDP read for July, the first look into Q3. June’s figure disappointed by remaining flat, but Q2 was quite positive in general, a comeback quarter after a weak Q1. An increase of 0.1% m/m is on the cards now.

RMPI: Friday, 12:30. Alongside monthly GDP, Canada publishes the Raw Materials Price Index, which provides some insights into inflation. A surprising increase of 0.7% was seen in July. The figure for August may be more modest.

*All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD kicked off the week with a dip below 1.30 (mentioned last week).

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3295 held the pair down in mid-July. 1.3220 capped it earlier in the month.

1.3170 served as resistance in mid-August. 1.3100 is a round number that also capped the pair several times in August.

1.3045 separated ranges in mid-September and is a pivotal line. Below 1.3000 we find the mid-August trough of 1.2960. 1.2890 is the initial low seen in late August.

1.2820 was a stepping stone on the way up in late May. 1.2730 provided support earlier in May. Lower, 1.2630 held the pair down back in April.