On September 30, 2018 I published a short piece on the US dollar. The conclusion was as follows: “If something cannot go up pushed by hordes of optimists, it is supposed to go down. Summarizing – I am bearish on the US dollar in the medium term”
After nearly one month the situation has not changed too much. Over that period:
As a result, the average speculator trading US dollar index futures is overly optimistic about the US currency but the problem is that this huge optimism has only marginal impact on the greenback itself – since September 30, 2018 the US dollar has strengthened by a mere 0.7%. I am not surprised – if everybody is in one camp, most probably the opposite happens.
What is more, over that period the gold has strengthened as well (by 2.7%) so we have quite an interesting situation where the gold (red arrow) and the US dollar (green arrow) are going in the same direction:
Source: Stockcharts.com
It has to be also noted that the excessive optimism among the speculators trading US dollar index futures is accompanied by extreme pessimism among their fellows trading gold futures. As a result, there is an extremely positive mix of sentiment, supporting a bullish thesis on gold and the precious metals market.
