The headlines say wholesale sales improved month-over-month with inventory levels remaining elevated. Our analysis shows a deceleration of the rate of growth for the rolling averages.
Analyst Opinion of this month’s Wholesale Sales
Overall, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story – and they declined this month. Even with this month’s decline of the unadjusted data, the short-term trends are showing an improving cycle beginning in 2016.
Inventory levels this month are are the high side of normal – but not recessionary.
To add to the confusion, year-over-year employment changes and sales growth do not match.
Note that Econintersect analysis is based on the change from one year ago. Econintersect Analysis:
US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:
Wholesale sales were at record highs for almost two years – until 2015 where they contracted year-over-year – this contraction ended in 2017. Overall, the inventory-to-sales ratios is slowly returning to normal.
