The decision to include current trading signals* in last week’s update proved to be very timely, as the SPX remained on a sell signal all week long and dropped 180+ points.
The SPX tested our weekly downside target from the beginning of the week, and finally broke below it on Wednesday. According to Hurst, a properly drawn channel should include about 80% of price extremes. From a practical point of view, in 20% of cases where there’s a sudden, sharp move and price breaks decisively outside of the channel, it will usually find resistance at the higher time frame channel/target. This proved to be the case, as the SPX found support exactly at the monthly downside channel/target.
Current SPX signals: Daily Sell, Weekly Sell, Monthly Sell
Monthly CIT pivot for SPX at 2916, S3 – 2735, R1 – 2953
The projected trading range for next week for SPX is 2700-2815:
Oil switched from Hold to Sell on Wednesday and reached our weekly downside target.
Current signals: Daily Sell, Weekly Hold.
Monthly pivot for Oil at 73.3, S1 – 71, R1 – 76
The projected trading range for oil for next week is 69 – 74.5:
Gold reached our upside weekly target on Wednesday. It also broke above 1220 which we mentioned as an important precondition for a bullish reversal. Follow through will be critical for next week.
Current SAR signals: Daily Buy, Weekly Buy
Monthly pivot for Gold at 1196, S1 – 1172, R2 – 1240.
The projected trading range for gold for next week is 1200 – 1240:
The G6 pairs, with the exception of USDCHF and AUDUSD, hit our targets.
USDCHF remained on a buy signal, but traded flat.
Current trading signals: Daily Buy, Weekly Buy
Monthly pivot for USDCHF at 0.981, S1 – 0.97, R1 – 0.993
The projected trading range for USDCHF for next week is 0.982 – 1.0:
Last week we observed that the USDJPY daily upswing which began on 9/11 was pushing the limits of daily swing duration. USDJPY switched to a sell signal on Monday and broke below our weekly downside target on Wednesday.
