Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 22
October 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
0.18
0.18
0.18
October 23
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
24
29
24
October 24
FHFA House Price Index – August
0.3%
0.2
0.3
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
55.3
55.6
55.5
PMI Services Flash Index
53.1
53.5
54.0
New Home Sales – September
620K
629
625
October 25
Initial Unemployment Claims
210K
210
212
Durable Goods Sales – September
-2.0%
4.4
-1.4
International Trade in Goods – September
-74.2
-75.8
-74.4
Wholesale Inventories – September (a)
0.3%
1.0
0.4
Pending Home Sale Index – September
103.5
104.2
104.2
October 26
GDP – Q3 (a)
3.2%
4.2
3.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – October (r)
99.0
99.0
99.0
Week of October 29
October 30
Personal Income – September
0.3%
0.3
Personal Spending
0.4
0.3
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
28.1
28.1
October 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index – August
Twenty City M/M
0.4%
0.3
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.0
0.1
Consumer Confidence
136.5
138.4
October 31
ADP Employment Report – October
195K
230.0
Employment Cost Index – Q3
0.8%
0.6
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y
2.8
2.8
Chicago PMI
60.4
60.4
November 1
Auto Sales* – September
17.2M
17.4
Car Sales
5.2
5.2
Truck Sales
12.0
12.2
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Productivity – Q3 (p)
1.9%
2.9
Unit Labor Costs
1.6
-1.0
PMI Manufacturing Index – October
ISM (Mfg) – October
59.4
59.8
Construction Spending – September
0.5%
0.1
November 2
Nonfarm Payrolls – October
200K
134
Private
195
121
Manufacturing
22
18
Unemployment
3.7%
3.7
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
International Trade – September
-$51.4B
-53.2
Factory Orders – September
-0.9%
2.3
Durable Goods Orders
-2.0
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.2
0.2
