Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 29
October 30
Personal Income – September
0.4%
0.3
0.4
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
28.1
28.1
28.0
October 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index – August
Twenty City M/M
0.4%
0.3
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.0
0.1
0.2
Twenty City Y/Y
6.0
5.9
6.0
Consumer Confidence
136.5
138.4
136.0
October 31
ADP Employment Report – October
195K
230.0
180
Employment Cost Index – Q3
0.8%
0.6
0.7
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y
2.8
2.8
Chicago PMI
60.2
60.4
60.0
November 1
Initial Unemployment Claims
212K
215
212
Productivity – Q3 (p)
2.2%
2.9
2,2
Unit Labor Costs
1.3
-1.0
1.2
PMI Manufacturing Index – October
55.9
55.9
55.9
ISM (Mfg) – October
59.3
59.8
59.1
Construction Spending – September
0.3%
0.3
November 2
Auto Sales* – September
17.2M
17.4
17.2
Car Sales
5.2
5.2
Truck Sales
12.0
12.2
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Nonfarm Payrolls – October
200K
134
190
Private
195
121
181
Core Private*
Manufacturing
22
18
14
Unemployment
3.7%
3.7
3.7
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
0.2
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
International Trade – September
-$53.6B
-53.2
53.4
Factory Orders – September
0.5%
2.3
0.4
Durable Goods Orders
0.8
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.2
0.2
Week of November 5
November 5
PMI Services Index
54.9
54.7
ISM Services – October
60.6
61.6
November 7
Consumer Credit – September
$17.0B
20.1
17.0
November 8
FMOC
2.125%
2.125
November 9
Producer Price Index – October
0.2%
0.2
0.2
PPI less food, energy and trade services
0.2
0.4
0.2
Wholesale Inventories – September
0.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)
98.0
98.6
