Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 8
October 9
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – September
108.8
108.8
108.0
October 10
Producer Price Index – September
0.2%
-0.1
0.2
PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)
0.2
0.1
0.2
Wholesale Inventories – August
0.8%
0.8
0.8
October 11
Initial Unemployment Claims
207K
207
210
Consumer Price Index – September
0,2%
0.2
0.2
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
0.2
Treasury Budget – September
$62.0
-214.1
62.0
October 12
Export Prices – September
-0.1%
-0.1
0.2
Import Prices
0.2
-0.1
0.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – October (p)
99.5
100.1
99.0
Week of October 15
October 15
Retail Sales – September
0.5%
0.1
0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.4
0.3
0.4
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
20.0
19.0
19.25
Business Inventories – August
0.6%
0.6
0.5
October 16
Industrial Production – August
0.3%
0.4
0.3
Capacity Utilization
78.2
78.1
78.1
Manufacturing
0.3
0.2
0.3
NAHB Index
67
67
67
October 17
Housing Starts – September
1.230M
1.282
1.237
Building Permits
1.285
1.229
1.280
October 18
Philadelphia Fed Survey
20.0
22.9
20.0
Leading Indicators
0.4%
0.4
0.5
October 19
Existing Home Sales – September
5.38M
5.340
5.35
