There are many indicators pointing to continued strength in the U.S. economy including increased manufacturing activity, robust readings from the service sector and low unemployment levels last seen 49 years ago. Employee wages are rising, and the labor market is benefiting from the current growth in the economy. We view the low levels of unemployment and continued wage growth as a positive signal for the economy.
As we discuss in the Fall 2018 Investor Letter, history shows the fourth quarter of a midterm election year combined with the first quarter of the following year are the two strongest returning quarters for the market over the four-year presidential cycle. The start of the fourth quarter may lead investors to believe something other than the historical data though. Days into the quarter, markets have turned lower and volatility has increased to a more normal level. Although this is unsettling, the underlying economic and market fundamentals are still supportive of favorable equity returns looking ahead. As the above chart shows, the performance of the S&P 500 occurs late in a mid term year.
For additional insight into our views for the market and economy as the year nears and end, see our Investor Letter accessible at the below link.
