Fear before Halloween is understandable, especially with October seeing one of the wildest stock market gyrations. But the road is possibly not as thorny as it is right now. Though rising rate concerns and U.S.-Sino trade tensions will keep playing foul occasionally, the fears will probably be oversold by next month.
Investors should note that unlike the real event, the effect of Halloween on the market is not at all scary. In fact, instead of tricking investors, the Halloween Effect is usually a treat. The Halloween Effect is a historically observed increase in stock prices from the month of November through the end of April. It is exactly opposite the popular adage “sell in May and then walk away” which refers to the six months between May 1 and Oct 31.
Retail sales particularly deserve a special mention this time around. Vacations, holiday season buying (both Christmas and spring season) and seasonal optimism may play a huge role in this surge.
Spending At the Second Highest This Halloween
National Retail Federation estimated that Americans will likely spend a staggering $9 billion this Halloween, almost the same as that of $9.1 billion registered last year. This year’s figure marks the second highest in the survey’s 14-year history.
Consumers are expected to expend $86.79 on average, up from last year’s $86.13. Costumes will account for the largest share of spending, in billions, though just 68% of consumers will likely go for them. On the other hand, 95% will likely shell out around $2.6 billion on candies. As much as 74% of consumers will spend about $2.7 billion on decorations and 35% will pay nearly $400 million for greeting cards.
Needless to say, retail sales will be on a roll in the upcoming days and put the following ETFs and stocks in focus.
ETF Picks
First Trust Nasdaq Retail ETF (FTXD – Free Report)
As much as 45% Halloween shopping will be done at discount stores. So, discount retailer stock-heavy funds are in the spotlight now. Kohls Corp (KSS – Free Report) and Wal-Mart (WMT – Free Report) have considerable weight in the fund.
