Is Fear Of The Stock Market Crash Justified?


The U.S. stock market indexes lost 2.4-4.4% on Wednesday, accelerating their downtrend, as investors’ sentiment much worsened following global stocks markets’ decline. The S&P 500 index is currently 9.7% below its September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.4% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.4% on Tuesday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,690-2,710, marked by the recent level of support. The resistance level is also at 2,730-2,750. On the other hand, the nearest important level of support is at 2,650, marked by the yesterday’s daily low. The next support level is at 2,600-2,620.

The broad stock market broke below its previous local low yesterday, as investors reacted to global stocks markets’ decline. The S&P 500 index fell almost 10% off its late September record high, so the downward correction is still slightly smaller than January’s-February’s sell-off of 12%. However, there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. And we could see more downward action following breaking down below the trend line:

Just Upward Correction?

Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are positive today, because the index futures contracts trade 0.6-1.3% above their yesterday’s closing prices. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.2-1.4% so far. Investors will wait for some economic data announcements this morning: Durable Goods Orders, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Pending Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. Investors will also wait for some quarterly earnings releases. The broad stock market will likely rebound after its yesterday’s sell-off. For now, it looks like another upward correction. We can see some short-term technical oversold conditions.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it retraces some of the sell-off. The nearest important level of support is now at around 2,650-2,670, marked by an overnight consolidation. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 2,680-2,700, among others. The futures contract remains below the level of 2,700, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

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