Based on this chart and the stochastic, I wonder if the market is ready for a bit of a short-term counter-rally back up to the point where support broke on Thursday?
A break down in relative strength often comes before a break down in the index.
This indicator works fairly well to keep you in or out of the market. These NYSE net new highs/ new lows show the health of the market internals (I wish I had more faith in it this past year). This is a two year chart.
Here is a five year view of the same chart. This a good looking indicator. I particularly like the fact that it would have had investors out of the market prior to the big sell of in August 2015. Also, I like that it shows the February sell-off of this year as just a temporary pull back.
At the moment, this chart says that the stock market is entering a weak period. Is it also showing a toppy pattern for the larger bull market?
Here is a weekly, 15-year view of the same indicator. This indicator would have had us out of the market late-2007, but it still has us in the market for the current time period…although it has the look of an indicator ready to turn lower.
I am not going back in time any further because it would put us in the 1990’s, and the late 1990’s were all about the NASDAQ and not the NYSE.
Outlook Summary:
The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is down as of Oct-4.
The short-term trend is down as of Sep-21.
The medium-term trend for bond prices is down as of Sep-7 (prices lower, yields higher).
Investing Themes:
Technology
Medical Products
Cyber Security
Payment Processors
Gaming
General Stock Market Commentary
MON Sector Strength – TUE Rates – WED Medium-Term – THU Commodities Currencies – FRI Sentiment – SAT Longer-Term
