It was a slightly slower day in the natural gas space, as though the prompt November contract traded within a 10-cent range it settled down just a few ticks.
Prices overnight shot higher over the $3.3 level this morning, but that bounce failed as we had warned was likely in our Afternoon Update yesterday.
Our Morning Update followed up on this explaining that bounces over $3.3 would still fail and that, “…on cash weakness downside to $3.2 is possible.” Cash prices ended up being decently strong today, but we did get all the way down to the $3.21 level on “…a slight tick lower in GWDDs…”
The Climate Prediction Center picked up on these temporarily easing risks in their Afternoon Update too.
More supportive afternoon European model guidance helped the front of the natural gas strip bounce post-settle, though, erasing some of these gains. Interestingly, the January contract ended up being the weakest on the day, which has continued post-settle too.
Spreads generally did not move much today, though we are watching the March/April spread as it sits right near highs again today.
We also had our subscriber-only live chat today, where we ran through a bunch of analysis with subscribers including our expectations of how Week 3 weather forecasts trend, what our forecasts for November/December are, what we see current weather-adjusted gas balances as indicating about forward price risk, and how recent nuclear outages play into this. Another trend we looked at was a bump back up in LNG exports recently.
