Rail Week Ending Saturday, October 6: Growth Rate Slowing On Economically Intuitive Movements -

Rail Week Ending Saturday, October 6: Growth Rate Slowing On Economically Intuitive Movements

Oct 12, 2018Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

Week 40 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

Rail continues to have relatively good growth – and the overall rate of growth in 2018 has been fairly stable.

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 1.6 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors declined from 4.4 % to 3.1 %.

Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year – but currently, the rate of growth is marginally slowing.

The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

.This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average +2.5 % accelerating decelerating 13 week rolling average +2.9 % accelerating decelerating 52 week rolling average +2.5 % accelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 554,238 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.2 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending October 6 were 269,634 carloads, up 0.7 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 284,604 containers and trailers, up 1.8 percent compared to 2017.

Six of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included petroleum and petroleum products, up 2,579 carloads, to 12,545; coal, up 1,250 carloads, to 88,939; and metallic ores and metals, up 880 carloads, to 22,121. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 included grain, down 1,918 carloads, to 22,641; nonmetallic minerals, down 1,557 carloads, to 37,581; and miscellaneous carloads, down 154 carloads, to 9,860.

For the first 40 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,518,193 carloads, up 2 percent from the same point last year; and 11,116,608 intermodal units, up 5.9 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 40 weeks of 2018 was 21,634,801 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.9 percent compared to last year.