Retail sales were slightly up a bit according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages rate of growth declined.
Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales
There was insignificant adjustment of last month’s data. This was a relatively strong report. The weakness this month was from department stores, gas stations and restaurants. It is very likely the growth this month was suppressed because of Hurricane Florence.
Things to consider when viewing this data:
it is not inflation adjusted.
the three-month rolling averages of the unadjusted data declined.
still, our analysis says this months’ year-over-year growth was about average for the growth seen since the Great Recession.
The year-over-year growth rate in inflation-adjusted retail sales and retail employment have diverged.
Backward data revisions were upward.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 3.6 % month-over-month, and up3.1 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth decelerated 0.9 % month-over-month, up 5.5 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 1.4 % year-over-year
this is an advance report. Please see caveats below-showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
in the seasonally adjusted data – the major strengths were department stores and restaurants/bars.
U.S. Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales up 0.1 % month-over-month, up 4.7% year-over-year (published up 6.6 % YoY last month).
the market was expecting (from Econoday):
| seasonally adjusted |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| Retail Sales – M/M change |
0.3 % to 0.8 % |
+0.6 % |
+0.1 % |
| Retail Sales less autos – M/M change |
0.2 % to 0.7 % |
+0.4 % |
-0.1 % |
| Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change |
0.2 % to 0.5 % |
+0.4 % |
+0.0 % |
| Control Group – M/M change |
0.2 % to 0.5 % |
+0.4 % |
+0.5 % |
