Rules For Managing Volatility


Volatility is back. Your success as an investor is based on how you’ll deal with it. Here are some rules to help you cope.

First, reconsider your allocation. If you have 50% or 60% stock exposure in what’s often called a ‘balanced” portfolio, and you can’t handle a 5% or 10% portfolio hiccup, you’re probably in the wrong allocation. After all, a correction (stock market decline of 10%) will take your portfolio down around 5% and a bear market (stock market decline of 20% or more) will take your portfolio down 10% or more.

In 2008, balanced portfolios dropped around 20%, and that’s what I tell balanced portfolio investors to anticipate. We’ve had two 50% drawdowns in the stock market since 2000, and there’s no reason why we can’t have another one. It’s true, we may not. But we just as easily might. Now is a good time to do a gut check or reconsider your allocation.

It’s possible that you can handle more volatility, but are just unaccustomed to it right now, so it feels particularly bad. Think about what it will be like to see your portfolio down 20% or 25%. And put a dollar value on that. Most people don’t think of their money in terms of percentages. That will help you figure out if you’re reasonably allocated or not.

Second, don’t be ashamed to admit you can only handle so much volatility. Financial planners are always pushing clients to invest more in stocks. But I think they do their clients a disservice because the advisors are neglecting to consider carefully whether the clients can handle the volatility of owning stocks. Sure, planners give clients risk questionnaires. But those only go so far. Nobody really knows hows they’ll react to stress until it arrives.

Also, advisors are human, and they probably have a more attractive view of themselves and their skills than they should. That means they think they’ll be able to soothe you better than they probably will when the market goes down. Advisors like to think that they can soothe clients, but if the client wants to leave, the advisor will do what the client says rather than lose the client. So don’t let an advisor push you into more stock exposure than you can handle. The best advisors work hard to find out what the best allocation is for you; they don’t try to push you into an allocation or make you feel badly for not having more stock exposure.

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