True to form, whoever holds the government it is for them the best economy ever. It doesn’t matter political parties or otherwise affiliations. The rhetoric has become so unhinged that in the US former President Obama is trying to take credit for current President Trump’s economic “miracle” – that doesn’t actually exist.
In India, the Modi government is following the pattern. A prominent member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, Surjit Bhalla, said today that the last four years under that government have been the “best years” for the Indian economy. If he so chooses, Bhalla would fit right in inside the DC beltway.
If you look at any macro parameters then these (Modi government’s four years) are the best four years of the Indian economy…so without a doubt, the macro performance is better.
Unlike current American politics, however, Indian officials are being stung by the sudden appearance of an unmistakable banking crisis. Unable to yet get a handle on it, Bhalla would go on to also admit, “We have the NPA [non-performing assets] crisis that by all account is a lot worse now as a share of GDP or as a share of loans.”
Who is to blame for this? The central bank, of course, channeling recent official sentiment on this side of the world. In the government’s considered opinion it has been the high rates and “tight monetary policy” pursued by the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (their version of the FOMC) that has somehow restrained economic growth during the “best four years of the Indian economy.”
Things are awesome, but if they aren’t it’s definitely someone else’s fault.
Unlike 2013-15, India is punching far above its weight on the scale of marginal importance. It’s not that the near failure and bailout of IL&FS, India’s big shadow eurodollar borrower, threatens the world with 2011, European-style contagion. The banking troubles on the subcontinent will likely only trouble Indians.
