The Australian Dollar has fallen more than 1.5% against the US Dollar from the recent three-month highs after failing to hold above yearly slope resistance. We’re looking for a low near upcoming support targets to identify whether this is just a correction or the resumption of the broader downtrend. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts.
AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART
Technical Outlook: In my previous AUD/USD Price Outlook we noted that Aussie had, “broken above multi-month slope resistance and although the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below 7327/36.” Price registered a high at 7338 last week before turning over sharply with the pullback breaking back below the January parallel.
Interim support rests with the highlighted trendline confluence around ~7190s with broader focus higher while above 7142. Ultimately, a break below the yearly low-day close at 7087 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial resistance stands with the median-line around ~7280s with critical resistance steady at 7327/36– a breach/close above this threshold is needed to validate the reversal and would suggest that a more significant low was put in last month. Note the pending RSI support trigger extending off the October lows.
AUD/USD 240MIN PRICE CHART
Notes: A closer look at price action shows Aussie breaking below the slope series we’ve been tracking with AUD/USD still holding within the initial weekly opening-range. The near-term risk remains lower while below 7286 with near-term support eyed at 7190 and the Fibonacci confluence at 7142– an area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries if reached.
Bottom line: Aussie has slipped back below the January parallel and IF this pullback is corrective, price should stabilize above 7142. From a trading standpoint, the immediate threat is still lower but we’ll favor fading weakness into the lower parallels with a breach above 7327/36 needed to validate a larger breakout
