We’ve all been conditioned to think the balanced portfolio is a touchstone of investing. For many investors, it provides enough exposure to the stock market (60%) to produce a healthy return and enough exposure to the bond market (40%) to provide ballast and a little income to a portfolio. Along the way, advisors like to say that investors have counted on beating inflation by 4 or 5 percentage points. Supposedly.
But, as MarketWatch’s Brett Arends points out, a balanced portfolio hasn’t always performed as advertised, and the upcoming decade might be one of those times. That means investors should consider other allocations (depending on their individual circumstances, of course).
First, from 1938 to 1948, a balanced portfolio trailed inflation. Then, again, from 1968 through 1983, a balanced portfolio trailed inflation, eroding a third of its value in real terms, according to Arends. Basically, a balanced portfolio struggles against inflation. And while it’s obvious why inflation hurts bonds with their fixed dollar payments, it also tends to hurt stocks, despite their assumed ability to benefit from companies passing on higher costs to customers through price increases.
There aren’t easy ways for investors to combat inflation if it should arise. Gold and commodities helped in the 1970s. Real estate can help too, as inflation can cause property price appreciation and push rents higher. Some foreign stock markets might help. Arends points out that Japanese and Singaporean stocks took off in the 1970s. Corporate bank loans and floating rate corporate debt might also help, though, Arends notes Ben Inker of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo (GMO) in Boston says credit protections aren’t what they once were. Finally, Inker notes that cash is a reasonable choice in times of inflation. And cash, as Arends says, doesn’t have to be in U.S. dollars. It can be in Swiss Francs, for example.
The 1970 also saw observers like Harry Browne advocate a different kind of portfolio mix – 25% each in cash, long-term bonds, stocks, and commodities. The cash and commodities would help in inflation, while the long-term bonds would help in times of deflation.