Eat, drink and merrily shop – has been the motto this extended weekend; as consumers (a third of whom have yet to pay off prior year’s debts) rush to shop, while retail ‘stocks’ reel. Perhaps in part that’s due more than usual to the reality aside those directly involved in retail; such spending helps China economics more than the U.S.; and actually drains money that might better be spent responsibly by many families.  

Not wanting to sound like Scrooge, there is another side to this: concern the best days of ‘bargains’ (or perceived value) of Chinese goods is behind and now significant price increases loom (I gave an example of a massage chair with retail price bumping by $1000 next month; hence 25% with the tariffs if you asked if I am rushing to get one; nope, already have it haha). (U. Mich. charts above and below reflect how Housing, Autos and Large Durable cost resistance, repelled confidence ‘selectively’ before it broadened somewhat; and yes I realize media still says consumers are euphoric and all of that.)  

Of course that ‘tariff bump’ may be averted or mitigated, depending how the massive fear about what’s happening next to stocks with huge multinational presence translates into reality or relief; again depending a lot of the ‘trade & tariff’ sideline meeting by Presidents Trump and Xi at G20 in Argentina.  

The reality is that retailing is morphing in ways that aren’t entirely realized. A company like Apple set the bar for ‘ecosystems’ (still not entirely warranted, as the ‘universe’ of customers to buy services depends on the installed-base of course). But there’s a cloud of fear, and some of that radiates to Amazon as well; because Amazon is transforming into a ‘service-based’ business to a greater degree. And while it is somewhat insulated compared to Apple or Google in that regard (variety of offerings at this point and combinations that do marry too many at the expense of others); it has backdrop antitrust risk.