The focus on UK Brexit and the uncertainty of the EU/UK deal and the fate of UK PM May remains the headline story. There are 48 letters needed for a leadership challenge and the count is 20 so far. 48 is also the hours in the weekend and many seem to have that in mind as trading dwindles into the US Thanksgiving holiday week ahead. You can buy 48 chicken nuggets in a bucket in Japan, one for each hour of waiting. 48 is the tag for freight trains cars that hold truck containers. The point is that there is a trainload of events in the week ahead despite the noise of today to remind investors that risk is a four-letter word. We could wait for GBP to break 1.27 or 1.32 before trading anything and be happy (at least for the next 48 hours.). Or we could pay attention to what happened elsewhere and consider the opportunities. While this was the week that was supposed to lock in the Brexit deal and Italian budget fudges and US/China pre-talk agreements we have had no such certainty.  Markets obsess about the US/China trade deals in the making and consider the brake to euphoria from Wilbur Ross late yesterday. China shares rally while Japan stumble again. We just have to wait for the G20 in Argentina for clarity there. NZD and AUD both rallied for the third week despite the China doubts on growth. NZD is the star performer and maybe the one to focus on into the next week if you are looking for clarity, as this is either a counter uptrend doomed for failure or the start of a massive global recovery led by 3 million people. No one can be sure of the outcomes and so its unlikely to see much joy in today’s tape for the US. Watching what moves maybe the best way to spend your next 48. 

Question for the Day: Does the ECB Draghi speech open an extension of QE and lower for longer rate policy? The short-answer is no. But given the doubts about UK Brexit, Italy’s budget and politics whether Greek elections, Germany leadership – all have put 2019 as a tough year for bigger confidence for consumers or corporations in Europe. ECB President Draghi spoke today at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress about the outlook for the Eurozone economy. There is one key question he tries to answer – is the 2H2018 growth a soft-patch or the beginnings of a recession. One interesting point to remember is that this is a swan song, his last speech for the banking group with the Banking Union plans that he pushed back in 2011 still not finished in 2018. Here are my takeaways: 

1)  Draghi doubts this is anything more than a “soft-patch.”There is certainly no reason why the expansion in the euro area should abruptly come to an end. A gradual slowdown is normal as expansions mature and growth converges towards its long-run potential. But the expansion in the euro area is still relatively short in length and small in size.