Thanksgiving holiday in the US comes but once a year but the practice of being thankful should be a daily routine. Markets today are not practicing such and the feeling of being stuffed with food, drink and too much news hangs over any joy from yesterday’s bounce. There is a bit of respite from the lower volumes with the US markets shut. There is also a feeling that the bears have been stuffed with enough price capitulation as to make the risk of much lower prices less obvious.
The usual headlines drive some hope with Italian BTPs bid again despite a lackluster sale today – Italy deputy PM Di Maio sees room for dialogue with EU, perhaps responding finally to the EU sanction risks. UK is bid on the “good progress” seen on Brexit. These are insufficient to keep equities bid in Europe. What seems to be lacking in risk appetite maybe blamed on the inevitable switch to sell bounces rather than buy dips now for risk assets. The chart that maybe worth thinking about in the context of why November is different than the obvious risk-off October comes from AUD/JPY – which clearly broke in October and recovered sharply only now its been seeping slowly back down. While today maybe a write-off for traders, its still worth thinking through what we all should be thankful for in the world, and in our portfolios.
Question for the Day: Is lower oil good? Short-answer – yes. The lower oil prices has put inflation fears lower in the US and Europe and this leaves room for a policy reaction function from the ECB and FOMC to further financial instability – read as equities lower, volatility higher. This is the central hope that many analysts are pushing for 2019 with a FOMC moving from normalization to neutral skipping restrictive in the process. The first line of thinking about oil prices starts with the effect on margins for companies using energy and on consumers using gasoline. The second is the knock-down effect on nations that produce oil vs. those that use it.
