Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of November 12
November 13
NFIB
108.0
107.9
108.0
Treasury Budget – October
-$122.0B
119.9
-111.8
November 14
Consumer Price Index – October
0.3%
0.1
0.3
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
0.2
November 15
Initial Unemployment Claims
214K
214
215
Philadelphia Fed Survey
20.0
22.2
20.0
Retail Sales – October
0.6%
0.1
0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.5
-0.1
0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas
0.4
0.0
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
21.1
21.1
Export Prices – October
0.0%
0.0
0.1
Import Prices
0.0
0.5
0.0
Business Inventories – August
0.3%
0.5
0.3
November 16
Industrial Production – October
0.2%
0.3
0.2
Capacity Utilization
78.2
78.1
78.2
Manufacturing
0.3
0.2
0.3
Week of November 19
November 19
NAHB Index
68
68
November 20
Housing Starts – October
1.220M
1.201
Building Permits
1.260
1241
November 21
Durable Goods Sales – October
-2.5%
0.7
Existing Home Sales – October
5.250K
5.150
Leading Indicators
0.1%
0.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – November (r)
98.3
98.3
November 22
Thanksgiving
November 23
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
56.2
55.7
PMI Services Flash Index
54.5
54.8
