“Equity Markets Still Look Vulnerable”: JPMorgan Sees No Signs Of Capitulation Yet


It’s been a painful few weeks for investors – large and small – as US equity markets have failed to adhere to the decade-long winning strategy of ‘buying the f**king dip’ whenever stocks fall away from the bottom-left to top-right plan of central bankers.

Major indices are all in (or extremely close to) correction with Small Caps down over 15% from record highs. Worse still,as Wolf Richter notes, 438 stocks on the NYSE have already collapsed between 40% and 94% from their recent highs.

And while a rate-hike in December is all but guaranteed (or the whole delusion of recovery is destroyed), doubts are building over the three rate-hikes that The Fed forecast for 2019 in September.

And, as we noted previously, with stocks now down notably from their highs, the hope for a ‘Powell Put’ is gaining traction (amid slowing global growth and subdued inflation, widening credit-market spreads and a freefall in oil prices).

As Bloomberg adds, the tenure of former Fed chief Alan Greenspan is emblazoned in traders’ memories as the era of the ‘Greenspan Put’. Following the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in September 1998, and against a backdrop of emerging-market crises, Greenspan’s interventions to cut interest rates were closely correlated to stock market swoons, and markets had only to guess the level.

But,as we noted previously investors should not hold their breaths as The Fed is likely to continue with their current pace of tightening despite the decline in equity markets.

Nevertheless, an increasing number of analysts still believe The Fed will pause next year:

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed backs away from the three hikes it has built into 2019,’’ said Donald Ellenberger, a senior portfolio manager at Federated Investors Inc.

“The debate right now isn’t whether they go in December,” Bank of America’s Harris said. “It’s about when do they pause next year. That’s going to be increasingly data dependent and it’s going to be a game-day decision to some degree as we go into next year.”

“December is probably too early for pause, but we could certainly see it in the first half of next year,’’ said Gene Tannuzzo, fund manager and deputy global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “Markets need to adjust to lower and slower, both in terms of growth and interest-rate increases.”

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