In my last piece on the US dollar and gold (October 21, 2018) I made the following conclusion:
“It has to be also noted that the excessive optimism among the speculators trading US dollar index futures is accompanied by extreme pessimism among their fellows trading gold futures. As a result, there is an extremely positive mix of sentiment, supporting a bullish thesis on gold and the precious metals market”
Since the publication, gold has not changed its price while the US dollar is up 0.4%. So, generally, both instruments have done nearly nothing. It means that it is a good time to look at the general picture once again. Here it is:
Source: Stockcharts
I think the chart shows quite an interesting pattern:
Logically, when the US dollar is topping, gold is supposed to test its previous bottom but that is not the case now. Note that at the latest US dollar top (October 31, 2018), gold instead of getting close to the latest bottom at $1,170 – $1,180 per ounce, was standing at $1,215 per ounce.
In other words, gold is suggesting us that the scenario discussed in my latest articles (bullish for gold and bearish for the US dollar) is still valid.
