Gundlach: U.S. High Yield Spread Heading Into Recession


G4 Central Banks’ Balance Sheets

Fed = Federal Reserve, BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European Central Bank, BOE=Bank of England

G4 Central Banks’ Balance Sheets & Global Equities

Fed = Federal Reserve, BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European Central Bank, BOE=Bank of England

S&P 500 vs. MSCI ACWI (ex-US) Normalized 1/26/18

Source: Goldman Sachs as of September 4, 2018

U.S. = S&P 500 Index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. MSCI ACWI Index is a free-float weighted equity index for developed and emerging market countries (ex-US). EPS = Earnings per share. You cannot invest directly in an index.

U.S. Outperformed the Rest of the World

Source: Goldman Sachs as of September 4, 2018

U.S. = S&P 500 Index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. MSCI ACWI Index is a free-float weighted equity index for developed and emerging market countries (ex-US). EPS = Earnings per share. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Gross Domestic Product – Real and Nominal

Source: Bloomberg

YoY – year-over-year; GDP = Gross Domestic Product includes the total amount of goods and services produced within a given country. Nominal GDP is adjusted for inflation. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Measures of Business and Consumer Sentiment

Normalized based on z-scores since Oct 2002

Source: Bloomberg; DoubleLine

z-score = the number of standard deviations from the mean a data point is. You cannot invest directly in an index.

U.S. High Yield Spread Heading into Recession

 

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of October 30, 2018

US HY = Moody’s Bond Indices Corporate BAA Index are an average of the daily values for the corresponding month and weekly values are averages for the daily yields of the corresponding week. Spread = the difference between the yields of two bonds with differing credit ratings. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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