Back on November 1, we reported a “fascinating statistic” by Deutsche Bank – as of the end of October, 89% (a number that has since risen to at least 90%) of most major global assets had a negative total return year to date in dollar terms. This was the highest percentage on record based on data back to 1901, eclipsing the 84% hit in 1920. Putting this in context, in 2017 just 1% of asset classes delivered negative returns. The final straw was when the S&P 500 index, which had valiantly resisted a negative return for the year, finally succumbed to the gravitational pull of most other markets and turned red last week when it also suffered its second correction of 2018.
And while this statistic was quietly ignored for much of November, it eventually made its way to the front page of the WSJ today – just days after the S&P turned negative for 2018 and slumped into its second correction of the year – which reported what most traders had known already: “stocks, bonds and commodities from copper to crude oil to burlap are staging a rare simultaneous retreat, putting global markets on track for one of their worst years on record and deepening a sense of unease on Wall Street.”
For those investors who have somehow slept through the past two months, it has been a painful market ever since the S&P hit its all time high on September 20: major stock benchmarks in the U.S., Europe, China and South Korea have all slid 10% or more from recent highs. Crude oil lost a third of its value and slumped deep into bear market territory, emerging-market currencies have broadly fallen against the U.S. dollar, while bitcoin’s price crashed below $4,000 over the weekend amid what a broad risk capitulation.
While havens such as Treasury bonds and gold rallied this fall as riskier assets swooned, both are still down on a price basis for the year, reflecting trader concerns with solid economic growth and tighter Federal Reserve policy that have begun to push interest rates out of their post-financial crisis doldrums.
And, as we first discussed last week in why “Nothing is working”, the market’s sharp and broad pullback has left fund managers scrambling to find places to park their money. But with global growth showing signs of slowing even as monetary policy is expected to tighten further, few are eager to place large wagers and risk compounding earlier failures to generate expected gains.