October’s sell-off had plenty of drama. Headlines and tons and tons of volume and extreme oversold readings on pretty much every indicator that ever existed.
November hasn’t been anything like that, which has been what has made it so complicated. The breadth has not been bad at all. In fact, the T2108 indicator, which measures the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average, is still at 30%, which is only 10 points below its highs from earlier this month. At similar prices on SPX, we were seeing reading in the single digits on the T2108.
What about the short-term stochastics? Well, that isn’t even halfway towards being oversold at this point, and much of these sell-offs, are not showing anywhere near the declines of 4 or 5-to-1 edge like we saw much of October. Not to mention the VIX is waaaaay below the levels seen just a few weeks ago.
Now take the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator, and you have a bullish reading triggered last week, but price continues to go in the opposite direction.
So there is a lot of divergences working in the bulls favor. From a seasonal standpoint, this should be a favorable time for the market, but price still must cooperate. This afternoon, we saw some potential in this market to finally bounce, when it saw some heavy buying emerge this afternoon, to send price over 35 points off the lows of the day on SPX.
It just needs to continue that into the close and into tomorrow.
Here’s the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator:
