The Chicago Business Barometer again declined but remains firmly in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys (which have been weakening) – and generally aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.

Expectations this month from Econoday were 59.0 to 64.5 (consensus 60.0) with the actual at 58.4. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,

Production continues to be restrained by issues between firms and their suppliers, reflected by Supplier Deliveries at a 14-year high, while the latest raft of tariffs on Chinese goods appears to be exacerbating uncertainty across firms.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer declined to 58.4 in October, the lowest reading since April, down 2.0 points from 60.4 in September. Business activity continued to expand at a healthy rate this month, despite the pace of activity decelerating for the third month in a row. A decline in order book growth and unfinished orders more than offset a rise in output, delivery times and employment, sending the Barometer to its lowest reading in six months. On the year, the Barometer was down 10.7%, the biggest year-over-year fall since December 2015. Despite beginning the final quarter on a softer footing, activity remains robust relative to recent years. The headline index still sits above its five-year average, with the latest moderations possibly reflecting a reversion to more familiar levels after a series of strong performances over the past 12 months.

The From ISM Chicago is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI