The term “overseas turmoil” didn’t ever make into the official language, it was only through careful innuendo that things like FOMC meeting minutes would ever refer to the idea. It was a different story in the media, where the phrase gained its own currency. Ironically, it was the US currency behind it, which nobody could explain at the time. The most dramatic announcement to that effect came in August 2015 under Chinese authority.

Before that summer, everyone was sure the first rate hike was going to be September 2015 at the absolute latest. There had been rumors (Yellen’s six-month debacle) it would come perhaps as early as June, being six months following the expected full taper of QE’s 3 and 4.

Then CNY.

Two days after Wall Street was liquidated in a global selloff, the TV cameras were understandably pointed at Fed officials. People wanted some answers, policymakers were stunned and confused. “Overseas turmoil” seemed to fit, at least for public consumption.

It was always an odd one, though, a contradiction if you ever really thought it through. If overseas turmoil was really overseas turmoil, why would the Fed care? Why should it pause or even halt the planned monetary policy normalization in the US? When the US economy is really strong foreign problems aren’t ours.

In late August after the global liquidation wave, then-FRBNY President Bill Dudley, pre-reformed, suddenly appeared squeamish, telling reporters that a first rate hike timed for September was “less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago”.

Wild swings in global financial markets, the slowing Chinese economy and falling commodity prices have increased the “downside risks” to the U.S. economic outlook somewhat, Dudley said in brief remarks to reporters Wednesday.

History repeats because no one was listening the first time. “Overseas turmoil” was never fully explained, never once were any of these officials made to answer for the dollar. It’s all just some market stuff over which they exercise no control, presumably.