Week 44 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Although the economically intuitive sectors improved this week – the rolling averages declined.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
Rail improved this week but the overall rate of growth in 2018 has slowly decelerating.
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal, grain, and petroleum are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 1.4 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors was declined from 0.0 % to -0.1 %.
Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth improved this week it grew 8.9 % YoY.
The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
.This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
A summary for this week from the AAR:
