When William Gibson would say that “the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed,” he was referring to how wealth and location determine one’s access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship.
In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, former Treasury Secretary Paulson seemed to express the views of many. If neither the US nor China changes its course, an “iron curtain may soon descend.” Pssst…the future has happened.
It can be debated when the Rubicon was crossed. Perhaps it was when Chinese officials had thought a deal had been struck with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to buy more US goods to reduce its bilateral surplus with the US, only for President Trump to have torpedoed the agreement. That taught China that power does not lie with the US Treasury. Chinese officials also took that to mean that issue was really the bilateral imbalance, but part of a larger attempt to stymie China’s rise. The Rubicon has been crossed.
Trump’s speech a couple of months ago should have left no doubt about what is happening: “When I came we were heading in a certain direction that was going to allow China to be bigger than us in a very short period of time. That is not going to happen anymore.”
Vice-President Pence was crystal clear in a recent speech. China was trying to shape the world in ways that are contrary to the US values and interests. Past administrations that sought to integrate China into the US-led order, like Paulson, in effect were co-conspirators violations of the rules to the detriment of America. Pence claimed that China was interfering with domestic policies. This is a strong claim.
It is not exactly clear what the Vice President meant, but China, like several countries, responded to US tariffs with retaliatory levies aimed, at least in part, at products from areas in which Trump drew support, like agriculture areas. Pence may have also been referring to the op-ed ad that China took in a local paper a few weeks ago. In any event, the claim is China wants to harm us and subvert of goals. It is not a strategic partner. It is a rival and adversary.
US Secretary of State Pompeo was on message when he recently said that “the trade war with China against the US has been going on for years. Here’s what’s different in this administration. We are determined to win it.” And many think that to win it, China must not only change its behavior in fundamental ways but abandon the “Made in China 2025” initiative. Even then many will not be satisfied until China liberalizes politically. Paulson, who plays down ideological differences, blames the failure to sustain and extend the previous reform momentum on the “tightening grip” of the Chinese Communist Party.
