Dollar/CAD had an interesting week amid ups and mostly downs in oil prices and a changing market mood on trade. What’s next? The inflation and retail sales reports stand out in a double-feature Friday. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Reports that Saudi Arabia is willing to cut oil production sent oil prices and the C$ higher. However, Trump urged OPEC not to go forward and sent prices back down. Brexit also had an impact on the pair.
Updates:
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
Wholesale Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Sales at the wholesale level provide some guidance for the retail level. Sales dropped by 0.1% in August, following a significant rise of 1.1% in July. We will now receive figures for September.
Corporate Profits: Thursday, 13:30. Canadian corporations enjoyed an increase of 1% in profits during Q2, the second consecutive expansion. Data for Q3 is due now.
BOC Financial System Review: Thursday, 13:30. The Bank of Canada publishes its overview of the financial system twice a year. Apart from data about the banks’ situation, the publication also includes economic data.
Inflation: Friday, 13:30. Both top-tier retail sales and inflation figures are published at the same time and may have an outsized impact due to low liquidity. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in September. Core CPI remained flat, also an unflattering outcome. However, other measures of Core CPI, the Trimmed, Media, and Common, remained stable around 2%. We will now get data for October.
Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30. Back in August, Canadians squeezed their spending: retail sales slipped by 0.1% on the headline and 0.4% on the core. We will now get an update for September. While the data is lagging, consumption is of high interest and a significant deviation from expectations can certainly move the loonie.
*All times are GMT
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
