We have a big economic calendar. Some participants will be slow in recovering from their time off.  There will be plenty of economic data, but it might not matter.

The world of punditry has decided that the market moves must mean something important. “The market is sending a message”, they say. Oil prices have taken center stage. With oil about to “break support” they will be asking: Do plunging oil prices signal a weak economy?

Last Week Recap

In my last edition of WTWA I guessed that many would take the week off and there would be a lot of discussion about shopping. I was right about people taking time off. By today, CNBC was even recycling Wednesday interviews. Shopping got short shrift in the midst of some big market moves, mostly down.

I actually focused on the three key themes facing the market. It is just as relevant as it was last week. If you missed it, I urge you to take a look at the theme section and my final thought.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Investing.com. Their futures chart shows overnight trading and references to key news. Check out the interactive version online.

The market lost 3.8% and the weekly trading range was only slightly higher at 4%. I summarize actual and implied volatility each week in our Indicator Snapshot section below.

The Calendar

The calendar is important, offering something for everyone – housing, personal income, the Fed, and the 2nd read on the GDP.

Congress will be in the lame duck session and we’ll see plenty of speeches from all sides. Most watched will be one from Fed Chairman Powell Wednesday afternoon at the Economic Club of New York.

Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.

Next Week’s Theme

The market decline has sparked a search for the underlying message. The correlation between oil and stock prices has been strong, so that commodity leads the questioning: Do plunging oil prices signal an economic decline? Even a recession?

A highly respected (and highly paid) analyst for a big firm was asked his opinion on CNBC Friday morning. (I’ll omit the link, but you can find many similar comments). He briefly noted that the oil price decline had something to do with supply, but rapidly switched to economic weakness. “A $25 decline has to mean something!” The CNBC anchors agreed.

Starting with an opinion substitutes confirmation bias for critical thinking. Instead, let’s begin with an understanding of some facts.