Despite this being a low-volume holiday week, crude oil continues to plunge. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is down $3.69 or 6.75% and Brent crude oil is down $3.60 or 5.75% today alone, which further confirms the concerns I had when I wrote the article “Is A Crude Oil Liquidation Event Ahead?” on November 6th. In that piece, I warned that WTI crude oil’s technical breakdown below its key $65 level would likely lead to even more bearish action, which could then cause speculators or the “dumb money” to violently liquidate their large bullish position of nearly 500,000 net futures contracts. In today’s update, I will show the next key technical levels to watch and discuss the economic implications of crude oil’s crash of the past two months.
The daily chart shows how WTI crude oil fell by over $26 per barrel or 34% since early October:
Brent crude oil fell by over $28 per barrel or 33% since early October:
WTI crude oil keeps slicing below important technical levels: $60, $55, and the uptrend line that began in early-2016, which represents a very important and concerning technical breakdown. The next major support level to watch is $50; if WTI crude oil breaks below $50 in a convincing manner, it will likely try to gun for $40, then $30, and so on.
Brent crude oil sliced below its $70 and $60 support levels along with the uptrend line that started in early-2016, which is a very bad omen that increases the probability of further bearish action provided it isn’t negated by a close back above this level.
As I’ve been pointing out since the start of this year, crude oil futures speculators or the “dumb money” (the red line under the chart) have built a massive long position in WTI crude oil of just under 500,000 net futures contracts. There is a very real risk that these speculators will be forced to liquidate if the sell-off continues, which would greatly exacerbate the sell-off.
